US Stock Market Watch: Weekly Outlook (Aug 24–28) — NVIDIA, Jackson Hole, and Core PCE

I. Summary of the Week

AI convictions and rate trajectory collide head-on along the same timeline: NVIDIA's (NVDA.M) earnings report will set the tone for whether AI capital expenditures remain "better-than-expected and deliverable"; Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut speech at the Jackson Hole symposium will set the tone for whether "higher interest rates will persist longer"; while sandwiched in between, Core PCE and retail earnings will determine whether indices repair toward previous highs for SPY.M / QQQ.M or test support levels for semiconductors and high-valuation growth stocks under the pressure of long-term Treasury yields.

For a focused next step, see the US Tech and AI Supply Chain Earnings Analysis.

This is not an isolated week. Divergences from Apple and Baidu to optical modules and aerospace hardware have already been mapped out in 2026 US Tech & AI Supply Chain Earnings Analysis — this week simply shifts the focus of verification from "supply chain companies" to the "AI flagship leader + Fed Chair".

II. Market Backdrop Heading into the Week

During the previous trading week, US equities managed a rebound despite "rates failing to drop significantly": according to MSX market data, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed higher while the VIX pulled back; AI concepts generally rallied, with Tempus AI, SoundHound AI, Snowflake, Palantir, and others leading the gains. This indicates that capital has not abandoned growth, but is waiting for this week's two "ultimate verifications" — the earnings/guidance of the AI leader, and public remarks from the new Fed Chair.

However, the backdrop remains far from relaxed:

• Long-end US Treasuries: The 30-year yield touched levels not seen since 2007, as financing costs remain an implicit tax on high-valuation assets.
• Semiconductor Sentiment: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) faced noticeable pressure in the prior week, showing that market sentiment toward the AI value chain is not unilaterally bullish.
• Macro Narrative: Whether inflation experiences a "sticky decline" and how fiscal policy and debt issuance pace impact the yield curve remain key variables for whether indices can break through previous highs.

Therefore, this week is not about "whether indices rise or fall," but about which narrative is stronger: AI or interest rates. Recent issues of Recaps & Weeklies have repeatedly emphasized the same point: whether indices can break out depends not only on earnings figures, but also on whether the interest rate narrative improves in tandem.

III. Three Main Themes This Week

Theme 1: NVIDIA Earnings = The "Final Exam" of the AI Capex Cycle

As one of the last companies among the "Magnificent Seven" to disclose earnings, NVIDIA will report its Q2 FY2027 financial results after market close on Wednesday, August 26, US Eastern Time (early morning August 27, Beijing Time).

Market focus is highly concentrated:

| Observation Dimension | Why It Matters | |---|---| | Data Center Revenue & Guidance | Directly reflects whether Capex from cloud hyperscalers, model providers, and sovereign AI remains sustained | | Blackwell / Next-Gen Architecture Shipments & Gross Margin | Determines whether "volume growth" can offset "price/mix" pressures | | Management Statements on Downstream Demand | A single phrase on "demand visibility" is enough to trigger a sector-wide revaluation across SOX | | Stance on China Business / Export Restrictions | Impacts expectations for supply chain peers such as TSM.M and AVGO.M |

Two typical scenario paths:

• Bullish Scenario: Revenue and next-quarter guidance both exceed consensus → Weights in QQQ.M and SOX repair, AI application-layer stocks (PLTR.M, SNOW.M, etc.) follow suit, and risk appetite rebounds.
• Bearish Scenario: Numbers are acceptable but guidance is conservative / gross margins miss expectations → High-beta AI names face valuation compression first, followed by pressure on semiconductor equipment and custom chips (MRVL.M, etc.).

Note: Current NVDA.M pricing already bakes in a substantial "perfect narrative." In this week's environment, a "good earnings report" may not necessarily translate to a "big rally"; the key is whether guidance comes in a notch higher than market expectations.

For users already trading NVDA.M or looking to participate in AI-related activities around the event week, MSX AI Compute Ecosystem Trading Rewards Rules directly impacts how spot volume and futures trial funds are calculated.

Theme 2: Jackson Hole = Warsh's First "Policy Tone-Setting Window" Post-Inauguration

From August 27 to 29, the Kansas City Fed will host the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium; the market expects Kevin Warsh to deliver his first annual conference speech as Fed Chair on Friday, August 28.

Against the backdrop of elevated 30-year Treasury yields, what the market wants to hear is not slogans, but rather:

1. Assessment on the disinflation path — whether it is driven by "temporary factors" or "structural stickiness";
2. Trade-offs between employment and financial conditions — whether there remains a preference to hold restrictive rates for longer;
3. Stance on fiscal policy, debt issuance, and curve structure — whether rising long-end rates will be viewed as a risk requiring a "policy response."

Impact paths for US equities:

• Dovish / Mildly Dovish: Long-end yields retreat or stabilize → Valuation pressure on growth assets eases, making it easier for SPY.M to approach historical highs.
• Hawkish / Emphasizing Inflation Risks: Yields move higher again → Duration-sensitive assets (high-valuation tech, unprofitable AI) sell off first, subsequently affecting broader indices.

With NVIDIA coming first and Jackson Hole following later in the week, if earnings prove strong while speeches turn hawkish, the market could experience a "sharp intraday style rotation" — a tech rally in the first half of the week followed by interest rate repricing in the second half.

Theme 3: Core PCE + Retail Earnings = "Cross-Validation" of Consumption and Inflation

On Wednesday, August 26, multiple US macroeconomic indicators will be released simultaneously, including July Core PCE, revised GDP figures, personal income, and outlays. As one of the Fed's most favored inflation metrics, Core PCE will directly influence market pricing probabilities regarding whether the September FOMC meeting will hold, cut, or hike rates.

In the same week, US retail earnings continue in dense fashion:

| Time | Representative Companies | Analytical Significance | |---|---|---| | Tuesday | Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), etc. | Resilience in sports and outdoor consumption | | Wednesday | Five Below, Urban Outfitters, Bath & Body Works, etc. | Youth/trendy consumption and discretionary spending | | Thursday | Ulta Beauty, etc. | Whether cosmetics remain a "growth engine" | | Within the Week | Dollar General, Dollar Tree, etc. | Discount retail ↔ Intensity of consumer downtrading |

Interpretation: If PCE comes in hot and discount retail guidance comes in weak, the narrative of "soft landing + AI solo rally" will be challenged; if PCE remains moderate and mid-to-high-end retail stays solid, indices will find it easier to complete a repair led by tech.

If using futures contracts to hedge index volatility this week, traders need not look at single-platform fee rates alone — Bitget vs MSX: Differences in Derivatives Liquidity, Fees, and Multi-Asset Coverage serves as a handy comparison reference when selecting position tools.

IV. Trading Calendar (Beijing Time Perspective)

| Date | US Market Day | Key Events (Expected Order of Focus) | |---|---|---| | Mon Aug 24 | Week Opening | Geopolitical/sanctions headlines (e.g., energy supply expectations), US Treasury opening direction; whether indices can extend last week's rebound | | Tue Aug 25 | — | Retail earnings (DKS, etc.); pre-market/after-hours volatility may rise | | Wed Aug 26 | Key Day | July Core PCE, revised GDP, etc.; NVIDIA reports after market close → Global AI supply chain pricing in early Thursday morning | | Thu Aug 27 | Key Day | Digesting NVIDIA earnings; Marvell (MRVL.M) and other semiconductor earnings; Bank of Korea rate decision; Jackson Hole opens | | Fri Aug 28 | Key Day | Warsh's Jackson Hole speech; Ulta and other retail earnings; weekly close for indices/VIX |

Operational Tip: MSX platform US stock tokens cover pre-market, regular hours, and post-market trading (Daylight Saving Time). Around major event days, prioritize managing leverage and overnight risk for NVDA.M, QQQ.M, and SOX-related assets.

V. Key Asset Watchlist

1. Indices & ETFs

• SPY.M (S&P 500): Whether it can hold firm around previous high zones after the triple catalyst of "earnings + PCE + Jackson Hole."
• QQQ.M (Nasdaq 100): Most sensitive to NVIDIA's weighting and AI sentiment; volatility this week will highly likely exceed SPY.M.
• IWM.M (Russell 2000): If interest rate expectations lean hawkish, small caps will face relative pressure; if macro data remains mild, a catch-up window may emerge.

2. AI & Semiconductors

• NVDA.M: The core focal point of the week; often demonstrates a two-stage price move around earnings ("buying the rumor, reacting to guidance").
• MRVL.M, AMD.M, TSM.M: Earnings and supply chain verification, ideal for observing whether AI Capex spreads from the "primary leader" to "second-tier players."
• PLTR.M, SNOW.M (Application Layer): If NVDA guidance is strong, elasticity is typically higher than indices; conversely, pullbacks occur faster.

3. Macro-Sensitive Assets

• Long-End Rate Expectations: Moving in tandem with Jackson Hole.
• Energy Sector: If geopolitical sanctions drive crude oil higher and rekindle inflation expectations, valuation across growth equities will be suppressed.

VI. Scenario Analysis (End-of-Week Perspective)

| Scenario | Trigger Combination | Indices & Market Style | |---|---|---| | A. Double Catalyst | NVDA guidance beats + Warsh non-hawkish + PCE mild | QQQ.M leads rally, SOX repairs, VIX drops | | B. Good Earnings, Bad Rates | NVDA strong + Warsh hawkish / PCE hot | Tech surges intraday then fades, index divergence intensifies | | C. Earnings Disappoint | NVDA guidance mediocre + no macro surprises | AI chain pulls back, capital temporarily moves into defensive and cash-flow sectors | | D. Double Hit | NVDA weak + Warsh hawkish + PCE hot | Growth valuations crushed, SPY.M tests short-term support, volatility spikes |

Baseline Scenario (Subjective Probability): Slightly leaning toward Scenario B — AI fundamentals remain strong, but long-end rates and "perfection pricing" make a unilateral breakout difficult for indices; event-driven range trading is preferred over single-direction bets.

VII. Trading & Risk Management Tips

1. Reduce leverage prior to event days: Implied volatility for NVDA.M / QQQ.M usually rises around NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole; set stop-losses when chasing upside.
2. Distinguish "results" from "guidance": Focus first on guidance and gross margin commentary in post-market trading before deciding to chase longs or reverse positions.
3. Track US Treasuries, not just stock indices: If 10Y/30Y yields rise in sync, the sustainability of any tech rally will be discounted.
4. Use retail earnings as a secondary consumer check: Don't focus exclusively on AI; PCE combined with Dollar Tree-type guidance serves as auxiliary evidence to judge whether the "AI solo rally can persist."

For a focused next step, see the US Stocks Weekly.

VIII. Conclusion

During the week of August 24–28, US stocks enter a classic "macro + mega-cap earnings" dual-peak event window. Looking at the key asset framework, NVIDIA dictates AI, Jackson Hole dictates rates, and PCE dictates September policy expectations — the overlay of all three will determine whether SPY.M / QQQ.M breaks out or resumes range-bound consolidation.

For individual investors, the most critical task this week is not guessing a price target, but first clarifying which narrative you believe in, then aligning your position sizing accordingly: if you believe the AI Capex expansion will continue, accept the volatility and hold mega-cap beta; if you believe rates will stay higher for longer, reduce duration and valuation exposure.